Futurist and tech expert David Shapiro outlines a compelling vision for the next two decades in this video https://youtu.be/cPCZ4H763EU .
His predictions hinge on several major technological breakthroughs that he believes will radically transform how we live, work, and interact:

The AI Singularity: From AGI to ASI

Shapiro asserts that artificial general intelligence (AGI), a machine intelligence matching the full capabilities of the human mind, is imminent. He argues that the line between AGI and ASI (artificial superintelligence) may be functionally nonexistent. Once machines are capable of true general intelligence, they’ll likely rapidly surpass human abilities across all domains.

This breakthrough promises an explosion of economic progress. Goods and services will become incredibly cheap as automation handles production. However, it also poses the existential question of what happens to a society where widespread human labor is no longer necessary.

Fusion Power: Energy Hyperabundance

Shapiro, like many others, believes commercial fusion power is finally within reach. Despite the long-running joke about fusion always being “20 years away,” recent advancements and massive investments suggest a breakthrough is closer than ever. Currently, China and several other nations are making significant progress in their fusion endeavors, driving renewed optimism in the scientific community.

Fusion energy could usher in an age of staggering abundance. Shapiro paints a picture of a future where:

• Landfills are emptied as everything becomes recyclable
• Deserts are turned into farmlands and the world regreened
• We desalinate seawater on a massive scale to combat drought
• Climate change is reversed through carbon capture technologies
• Vast energy resources allow for undersea settlements or even exploration of ocean floors.

Quantum Computing and the Material Science Boom

Another pillar of the coming revolution is quantum computing. While still in its infancy, companies like IBM are heavily invested, signaling its potential. Shapiro emphasizes the synergy between quantum computing, AI, and the often-overlooked field of material science.

Materials underpin virtually everything. A new metamaterial could lead to batteries with vastly increased lifecycles, make solar cells incredibly efficient, or lead to nanotechnology with currently unimaginable applications. Quantum computers, working with AI, have the potential to revolutionize how we discover and design these materials.

Advanced Biotech: Curing Disease, Extending Life, and Beyond

Shapiro envisions breakthroughs in biotechnology driven by mapping the human metabolome – a complete breakdown of our biochemistry. Technologies like CRISPR, mRNA vaccines, and new gene therapies could pave the way for the eradication of all diseases and, ultimately, the reversal of aging itself.

In the long term, this could mean full control over human biology. We might adapt ourselves to live in harsh environments on Earth or in space. Imagine extending lifespans indefinitely and improving health so that people can lead long, active lives well beyond the current limits.

Compounding Returns: The Unstoppable Snowball Effect

These technologies aren’t isolated events. Longer, healthier lives mean our greatest minds have more time to solve problems. Abundant energy fuels advanced computing. Biotech breakthroughs, when combined with AI, might exponentially accelerate the pace of scientific discovery.

Shapiro stresses that as the hurdles get smaller and our capabilities grow, finding solutions to once-intractable problems could become remarkably fast.

Beyond Labor: Adapting to the Meaning Economy

Shapiro argues that a post-labor economic model is not a choice but an inevitability. AI and automation will drive the cost of essential goods and services towards zero. The primary danger, he believes, is clinging to the idea that everyone must work traditional jobs. Instead, we should look towards alternative economic models.

He outlines four pillars that could support a world where production is largely automated:

• Statutory Jobs: Roles where human decision-making is legally mandated (doctors, judges, potentially political offices), even if AI significantly assists.
• Meaning Jobs: Sense-making, communication, philosophy, spiritual guidance – all become more important in a complex world.
• Experience Jobs: We’ll always crave live entertainment, massages, and other in-person experiences AI can’t fully replace.
• Care Jobs: Teachers, childcare, and potentially eldercare (if aging is cured) could form a large sector, prioritizing human development and connection.

Hyper-Capitalism and Economic Agency

Even without widespread labor, capital will remain essential. Shapiro envisions hyper-capitalism, where data centers, robots, fusion reactors, and other capital-intensive assets are crucial. However, this doesn’t mean surrendering to corporatism. He advocates for a radical shift focusing on economic agency, empowering individuals to shape their own economic futures.

This vision includes several key components:

• Property Rights: Protecting individual ownership rights remains crucial.
• Tax Policies: Fairer taxation that doesn’t excessively favor corporations over individuals.
• Redistribution: Policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Universal Basic Services (UBS) to ensure access to essentials amidst automation.
• New Models of Ownership: Shapiro champions innovative ideas like hyperlocal stock markets, where only community members can invest, encouraging direct participation and decentralized ownership.

The Digital Superorganism: A Brain in Need of Self-Control

Shapiro’s vision extends beyond individual rights. He believes humanity is forming a global digital superorganism. Mass communication tools like radio, television, and the internet were the first steps toward global interconnectedness.

He argues that AI and AGI will function as a “prefrontal cortex” for this global brain. Currently, our superorganism resembles an out-of-control amoeba, obsessed with consumption and incapable of self-regulation. We build nuclear weapons, pollute the planet, and struggle to resolve conflicts.

AI holds the promise of self-awareness and rational decision-making at a planetary scale. This could pave the way towards ecological sustainability, global cooperation, and an end to self-destructive behavior.

Humans and AI: A Symbiotic Future

Shapiro rejects the idea of humans and AI as separate entities. Instead, he sees this as a symbiotic merger into a more complex, intelligent whole. Online interactions and communication platforms already form a rudimentary nervous system for this global superorganism.

AGI and ASI will significantly enhance these connections, potentially guiding our collective actions towards greater wisdom and a focus on higher-order goals like scientific advancement, philosophical exploration, and interplanetary expansion.

Reasons for Optimism

Despite these profound potential disruptions, Shapiro ends on a note of optimism. He views understanding this trajectory toward a global, AI-enhanced superorganism as empowerment. It gives us a framework to consciously shape the future, steering it away from destruction and towards a more cooperative, abundant, and intelligent existence for species and planet alike.

Especially for the kids

Imagine stepping into a world where robots are smarter than humans, cars fly through the sky, and you can travel to Mars for spring break. That’s the kind of future David Shapiro talks about for the next 20 years! Picture a world where computers are so smart (we’re talking genius-level here) that they can do almost anything better than us. This could make a lot of stuff super cheap because robots will do all the work.

Next up, fusion power – it’s like a super-mega-powerful way to make electricity without pollution. Imagine never having to charge your phone because energy is everywhere and it’s practically free. This could mean turning deserts into lush gardens and making sure everyone has plenty of clean water.

And then there’s quantum computing. It sounds like something from a sci-fi movie, but it could make computers a bazillion times faster. We could invent new materials that make batteries last forever or make super-efficient solar panels.

Biotech is another cool frontier. We might be able to cure every disease and even stop aging. Imagine living to be 200 years old without getting old and cranky!

All these advancements are connected. Healthier people means more time to invent cool stuff. More energy means better technology. And smarter AI means faster discoveries in everything from medicine to space travel.

But here’s the twist – in a future where machines do most of the work, we need to figure out what people can do. Shapiro thinks we’ll focus on jobs that matter to us personally, like helping others, exploring new ideas, or making sure everyone’s taken care of.

He also talks about a world where everyone has a say in their future, not just the big companies. Imagine being able to invest in your favorite local café and help it grow!

Lastly, Shapiro believes that we’re all becoming part of a giant, global brain – thanks to the internet and AI. This could help us solve big problems together, like climate change or ending wars.

In the end, Shapiro is super hopeful about the future. He thinks that by understanding all these changes, we can make the world a better place for everyone. How cool is that?